Information needed for these techniques is likely to be more firm-specific than that needed for exploratory techniques. Technology-watch in particular needs a proactive role to help the organisation identify and establish links with the most useful sources of information and opinion; typically these will be at the forefront of innovative activity. Foresight techniques The methods and systems used in foresight programmes are drawn from the forecasting field, particularly technology forecasting see above.
Judgmental or Intuitive Methods Judgmental methods fundamentally rely on opinion to generate a forecast. Typically the opinion is from an expert or panel of experts having knowledge in fields that are relevant to the forecast.
In its simplest form, the method asks a single expert to generate a forecast based on his or her own intuition. The potential for bias may be reduced by incorporating the opinions of multiple experts in a forecast, which also has the benefit of improving balance.
This method of group forecasting was used in early reports such as Toward New Horizons von Karman, Forecasts produced by groups have several drawbacks. First, the outcome of the process may be adversely influenced by a dominant individual, who through force of personality, outspokenness, or coercion would cause other group members to adjust their own opinions.
Second, group discussions may touch on much information that is not relevant to the forecast but that nonetheless affects the outcome.
Lastly, groupthink 4 can occur when forecasts are generated by groups that interact openly. The shortcomings of group forecasts led to the development of more structured approaches.
The Delphi Method The Delphi method is a structured approach to eliciting forecasts from groups of experts, with an emphasis on producing an informed consensus view of the most probable future. The Delphi method has three attributes—anonymity, controlled feedback, and statistical group response 5 —that are designed to minimize any detrimental effects of group interaction Dalkey, In practice, a Delphi study begins with a questionnaire soliciting input on a topic.
Participants are also asked to provide a supporting argument for their responses. Last accessed June 11, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies.
The National Academies Press. This process continues for several rounds, until the results reach predefined stop criteria.
These stop criteria can be the number of rounds, the achievement of consensus, or the stability of results Rowe and Wright, The advantages of the Delphi method are that it can address a wide variety of topics, does not require a group to physically meet, and is relatively inexpensive and quick to employ.
Delphi studies provide valuable insights regardless of their relation to the status quo. In such studies, decision makers need to understand the reasoning behind the responses to the questions.
A potential disadvantage of the Delphi method is its emphasis on achieving consensus Dalkey et al. Some researchers believe that potentially valuable information is suppressed for the sake of achieving a representative group opinion Stewart, Who wouldn’t want to improve their forecast accuracy?
Below are five topics to consider in your pursuit of forecast accuracy. 1. Forecast at the right level.
It is advisable to periodically review your current level of forecast and decide whether it is appropriate given the forecast accuracy goals and review process. Technology+forecasting 1. - Ferré () has defined technology as “practical implementations of intelligence”. which has impact on the way work is performed or on the efficiency or effectiveness of the enterprise”.
• Failure to take into account the intuitive importance of economic factor in shaping the direction of. The Weather Forecast Office in Newport/Morehead City, N.C., was the first to scan a tropical cyclone using such radar when Hurricane Irene made landfall in North Carolina in Importance of Technology Forecasting Helps in the long-term success of an organization.
Enhance the communication between the different communities, namely government, politics, various industries and science and technology sectors. Technology offers countless opportunities to maximize efficiency within your business operations, and therefore, save you time.
When your business is operating efficiency, it gives you more time to market your business and increase sales. Farmers have a long history of harnessing and benefiting from technology.
Robotics will become more important in the U.S. agricultural sector as labor costs rise .